2003 FCSM Conference Papers Keynote SpeakerMonday AM There and Back Again: Demographic Survey Sampling in the 21st Century (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader) Colm O'Muircheartaigh(NORC, University of Chicago) CONCURRENT SESSION II-A Disclosure (Session 1) Research into the Possibility of Releasing Hierarchical Public Use Microdata Files for the Canadian Census of Population Jean-René Boudreau Rossana Manriquez (Statistics Canada) Procedures to Reduce the Risk of Respondent Disclosure in a Public-Use Data File: The National Immunization Survey Meena Khare (National Center for Health Statistics, USA), Michael Battaglia and David Hoaglin (Abt Associates Inc., USA) Applying Disclosure Control to Temporal Data Anna Manning and Mark Elliot (University of Manchester, United Kingdom) CONCURRENT SESSION II-B Modeling 1 - Simulation Bayesian Analysis of Nonignorable Missing Categorical Data: An Application to Bone Mineral Density and Family Income Balgobin Nandram(Worcester Polytechnic Institute, USA) Jai Won Choi and Lawrence Cox (National Center for Health Statistics, USA) Imitating the Salamander: Reproduction of the Truncated Right Tail of an Income Distribution John Angle (Economic Research Service, USA) A Computational Routine for Disaggregating Industry Margin Data to Estimate Product Margin Rates Matthew Atkinson(Bureau of Economic Analysis, USA) Comparison of Model Based Methods for County Level Estimation of Crop Yields Michael Bellow (National Agricultural Statistics Service, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION II-C Evaluating the quality and validity of cognitive interviewing Inside the Black Box: Analysis of Interviewer-Respondent Interactions in Cognitive Interviews Nadra Garas (American University,USA) Johnny Blair (Abt Associates Inc.,USA) Frederick Conrad (University of Michigan,USA) A Framework Relating Questionnaire Design-and-Evaluation Processes to Sources of Measurement Error James Esposito (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION III-AMonday PM Disclosure (Session 2) Waivers in Business Surveys: A Systematic Approach to Increase the Amount of Publishable Information Jean-Sébastien Provençal Hélène Bérard(Statistics Canada) Using CART to Generate Partially Synthetic, Public Use Microdata Jerome Reiter(Duke University, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION III-B Evaluation of health and drug use issues Measuring Reduction in Disparity Among Several Rates Jeffrey Pearcy and Kenneth Keppel (National Center for Health Statistics, USA) Innovative Design and Analysis Strategies in the Evaluation of The National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign: Propensity Scores and Counterfactual Projection Weights in a National Probability Survey Robert Orwin, David Judkins Paul Zador, Sanjeev Sridharan (Westat, USA) Robert Hornik (University of Pennsylvania, USA) Bob Baskin (AHRQ) Methods for Capture-Recapture Analysis When Cases May Not Be Identified Uniquely Betsy L. Cadwell, Philip J. Smith and Andrew L. Baughman Center for Disease Control and Prevention CONCURRENT SESSION III-C Small area estimation Methods Used for Small Domain Estimation of Census Net Undercoverage in the 2001 Canadian Census Peter Dick and Yong You (Statistics Canada) Evaluation of the Practical Utility of Small Domain Estimators for the U.S. Current Employment Statistics Program John Eltinge and Moon Jung Cho (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA ) Assessing Fit of SAIPE Models to Census and CPS County Child-poverty Rates Eric Slud(U.S. Census Bureau and University of Maryland, USA) On Small Area Estimation Under Informative Sampling Danny Pfefferman(Hebrew University, Israel and University of Southampton, United Kingdom) Michael Sverchkov (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION IV-A Methods of record linkage An Infrastructure for Supporting Spatial Data Integration Les Miller and Sarah Nusser(Iowa State, USA) Record Linkage in An Integrated Census Theodor Yitzkov and Harry Azaria (Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel) Removing Duplication from the 2002 Census of Agriculture Kara Daniel and Tom Pordugal (National Agricultural Statistics Service, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION IV-B Modeling 2 - regression applications Steps Toward Modeling the Distribution of Automobile Retirements Brian Sliker (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) Measuring Defined Benefit Plan Replacement Rates Using PenSync James Moore (Social Security Administration, USA) Estimating the Lives Saved by Seat Belts and Air Bags Donna Glassbrenner (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, USA) A Method of Estimating Rollover Propensity for Passenger Vehicles Ellen Hertz(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION IV-C Survey design DATELINE: Design and Application of a Travel Survey for Long-Distance Trips Based on an International Network of Expertise Werner Broeg, Erhard Erl and Brian Schulze (Socialdata, Germany) Re-designing the UK's Annual Structural Earnings Survey Mark Pont(Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom) The Use of Permanent Random Numbers in a Multi-Product Petroleum Sales Survey: Twenty Years of a Developing Design Pedro Saavedra(ORC Macro, USA) Paula Weir (Energy Information Administration, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION V-ATuesday AM Linguistic and cultural issues in survey and questionnaire design The Role of Sociolinguistics in Federal Survey Development Yuling Pan (U.S. Census Bureau) The American Community Survey (ACS) en Espanol: Results of Cognitive Interviews Using the ACS Spanish Language Instrument Lorena Carrasco (U.S. Census Bureau) An Overview of A Proposed Census Bureau Guideline for the Translation of Data Collection Instruments and Supporting Materials Manuel de la Puente and Yuling Pan (U.S. Census Bureau) Deborah Rose(National Center for Health Statistics) Guideline Implementation: Translating a New Canadian/U.S. Health Survey into Spanish Deborah Rose (National Center for Health Statistics, USA) Manuel de la Puente (U.S. Census Bureau) CONCURRENT SESSION V-B Evaluation of census frame deficiencies Census Duplication and Ambiguities of Census Residence Elizabeth Martin, Robert Fay and Elizabeth Krejsa (U.S. Census Bureau) Census and Administrative Records Duplication Study Mary Mulry, Susanne Bean, D. Mark Bauder, Deborah Wagner, Thomas Mule and Rita Petroni (U.S. Census Bureau) A Bayesian Approach to 2000 Census Evaluation Using A.C.E. Survey Data and Demographic Analysis Michael Elliott (University of Pennsylvania, USA) Roderick Little (University of Michigan, USA) Developing a Coverage Adjustment Strategy for the 2002 Census of Agriculture Matthew Fetter and Phillip Kott (National Agricultural Statistics Service, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION VI-A Web-based data collection: development and usability issues Determinants of Web Reporting: A Qualitative Study of the Response Process, Response Burden and Mode Selection Tony Hak, Amy Anderson, and Diane Willimack (U.S. Census Bureau) Design Issues in Web-Based Electronic Business Surveys Elizabeth Nichols, Elizabeth Murphy (U.S. Census Bureau) Cyntrica Eaton, Kent Norman, Anna Rivadeneira and Cyntrica Eaton (University of Maryland, USA) Usability Issues Associated with Converting Establishment Surveys to Web-Based Data Collection Jean Fox, William Mockovak, Sylvia Fisher and Christine Rho (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) Conceptual and Practical Issues in the Statistical Design and Analysis of Usability Tests John Bosley, John Eltinge, Jean Fox and Scott Fricker (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION VI-B Administrative Records I Wholistic Approach to Multifaceted Integrated Census Olivia Blum (Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel) Statistical Use of Administrative Records: A Real Time Evaluation of Labour Demand Businesses Manlio Calzaroni and Roberta Rizzi (Institute of National Statistics(ISTAT), Italy) Use of Tax Data for Replacing Business Survey Data - The Data Quality Issue Sanping Chen, Paul Cascagnette and Sean Crowe (Statistics Canada) An Assessment of the Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation Using Social Security Administrative Data Melissa Koenig (Social Security Administration, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION VI-C Longitudinal data analysis Linearization Variance Estimators for Panel Survey Data Abdellatif Demnati (Statistics Canada) J.N.K. Rao (Carleton University,Canada) Pre-adjustment in X-12-ARIMA Luisa Burck (Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel) Effects of Transformation Choice on Seasonal Adjustment Diagnostics and Forecast Errors Golam Farooque(U.S. Census Bureau) Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles Victor Zarnowitz and Ataman Ozyildirim (The Conference Board, USA) TECHNICAL DEMONSTRATIONS Design and Evaluation of Aquatic Ecosystems via Discrete Event Simulation Jorge Romeu(Syracuse University, USA) Making Sense of Census Data via the World Wide Web: A Case Study Using the 1997 Census of Agriculture Irwin Anolik(National Agricultural Statistics Service) The NASS Question Repository System Daniel Beckler(National Agricultural Statistics Service) Bayesian Record Linkdage and Linkage Imputation Using CODES2000 and LINKSOLV Software Michael H. McGlincy(Strategic Matching, Inc.) Cognitive Tested Question Database Kristen Miller, Paul Beatty and Beth Canfield(National Center for Health Statistics) Developing an Analysis System for Agricultural Surveys and Censuses Arnie Wilcox and Robert Hood(National Agricultural Statistics Service) A Less Intrusive Variant on Cell Suppression to Protect the Confidentiality of Business Statistics Gordon Sande(Sande & Associates, Inc.) CONCURRENT SESSION VII-ATuesday PM Measuring and reporting survey quality measures Quality at the Item Level Terms, Methods, and Guidelines for Cross-Survey Comparisons, A Summary John Dixon (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Pat Doyle, Judy Eargle, Deborah Griffin, and Pamel McGovern (U.S. Census Bureau) Measuring Response Errors in Censuses and Surveys Through Reinterview Data Having a Different Measurement Error Variance Piero Demetrio Falorsi, Alessandro Pallara (Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT), Italy) and Aldo Russo (University of Rome, Italy) Standards and Guidelines for Reporting on Coverage Martin Provost(Statistics Canada) CONCURRENT SESSION VII-B Administrative Records II The Use of Administrative Data to Compute Measure of Size for New Employer Births Lora Gillott, James Burton and Carol King(U.S. Census Bureau) Exploring Social Security Payment History Matched with the Survey of Income and Program Participation James Sears and Kalman Rupp (Social Security Administration, USA) Use of Medicaid and Medicare Administrative Claims Data in Litigation and Regulation Timothy Wyant(Decipher, Inc., USA) and Stephen Parente(University of Minnesota) CONCURRENT SESSION VII-C Economic indicators A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators Robert McGuckin,Ataman Ozyildirim and Victor Zarnowitz (The Conference Board, USA) Output and Productivity Measurement for Non-market Activity: The Case of Italian Revenue Agency Marco Cutaia and Stefano Pisani(Italian Revenue Agency, Italy) Composite Predictions of Yield for Agricultural Commodities Timothy Keller and William Wigton (National Agricultural Statistics Service, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION VIII-AWednesday All Sessions Evaluation of the data quality impact of survey and dissemination processes Evaluation of U.S. EPA's Screener Questionnaire for the Aquatic Animal Production Industry and Comparison to USDA Data Marla Smith and Marta Jordan(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) Data Capture Using Fax and Intelligent Character and Optical Character Recognition (ICR/OCR) in the Current Employment Statistics Survey (CES) Richard Rosen, Vinod Kapani and Patrick Clancy (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) Cognitive Testing of Statistical Graphs: Methodology and Results Colleen Blessing, Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, Herb Miller, Renee Miller and Robert Rutchik (Energy Information Agency, USA) Partials and Break-offs in the National Health Interview Survey, 2002 Barbara J. Stussman, Beth L. Taylor and Howard Riddick (National Center for Health Statistics) CONCURRENT SESSION VIII-B Imputation Imputation Methods on Longitudinal Studies Yann-Yann Shieh(American Institutes for Research, USA) Developing Imputation Models for the Services Sectors Portion of the Economic Census Katherine Thompsonand Quatracia Williams (U.S. Census Bureau) Multiple Imputation of Missing Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) Values in FARS Rajesh Subramanian and Dennis Utter(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, USA) Exploitation of Neural Methods for Imputation Pasi Piela(Statistics Finland) CONCURRENT SESSION VIII-C Metadata and data mining Identification of Driver and Vehicle Characteristics through Data Mining the Highway Crash Data Santokh Singh (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, USA) Designing Data Collection, Processing and Dissemination Instruments with Reusable Metadata for the U.S. Census Bureau's 2002 Economic Census Initiative, Using XML and Web Services Steven Schafer and Roy Rogers, IV (Fenestra Technologies Corporation, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION IX-A Nonresponse and survey quality New Tools at Statistics Canada to Measure and Evaluate the Impact of Nonresponse and Imputation Jean-François Beaumont, David Haziza, Charles Mitchell and Eric Rancourt(Statistics Canada) Nonresponse Adjustment in the Current Employment Statistics Survey Kennon Copeland(Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) Multiple Imputation in Two Stages Ofer Hareland Joseph Schafer(Pennsylvania State, USA) CONCURRENT SESSION IX-B Sample design Sampling Racially Matched Population Controls for Case-Control Studies: Using Geocoding of Address List Frames to Establish Strata for Oversampling Minorities Ralph DiGaetano,Jacqueline Severynse(Westat, USA), Barry Graubard, Sowmya Rao and Shalom Wacholder (National Cancer Institute, USA) Aspects of Sample Allocation in Business Surveys Gareth James, Mark Pontand Markus Sova (Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom) A Sampling Strategy for Rear-End Pre-Crash Data Collection Santokh Singh (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, USA)